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# TRAPped: The OTR Churn
- URL: https://www.cabjournal.com/trapped-the-otr-churn/
- Published: 2026-09-09T13:09:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-09T13:09:00.000Z
- Author: Admin

As a driver in the trucking industry, I’ve heard one thing over and over again: “there aren’t enough drivers.” This statement has been treated as fact for as long as I can remember. If it’s true, it’s a big problem. The trucking industry is known as “the backbone of the U.S. economy,” and it’s true that a trucker shortage has the potential to cripple the economy. Nearly everything you see today, from the grocery store shelf to your favorite auto lot, has been delivered on a truck. How do we fix it? Or is it just a smoke screen?

The ATA (**A**merican **T**rucking **A**ssociations) has been sounding the alarm on the driver shortage since 2005\. Their most recent data shows an 80,000-seat shortfall, and if we don’t address the deficit, it could double by 2028\. The ATA claims that we must recruit 1.2 million drivers in the next 10 years in order to curb the problem, and there simply are not enough drivers to fill these seats. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/23/4a2325c9-4130-455d-8f39-35763edd1554/content/images/2026/09/data-src-image-e0f3a2a4-51ff-4a80-9c69-c1415800f5c6.png)

Luckily for us, a solution has been in the works since 2019, proposed by the same agencies that uncovered the problem. In 2019, Bob Costello, the ATA’s Chief Economist, said: *“The trucking industry needs to find ways to attract more and younger drivers…”* by “...*removing barriers for younger drivers.”* Right now, drivers between the ages of 18-20 can only operate within their own state lines (intra-state).The DRIVE-SAFE Act would allow those young drivers to operate across the country (inter-state), and lobbyists for the ATA, IFDA, and OTR mega-carriers have been hard at work. 

For decades, the OTR (**O**ver-**t**he-**R**oad) mega-carriers have operated with an incredibly high turnover rate known as “churn.” These companies, which operate 1,000 trucks or more, have a churn rate of 90-94%, sometimes exceeding 100%. Yes, these carriers replace their entire driving force every single year, and it’s baked right into the business model. This revolving door, the “churn and burn,” is the real systemic problem. 

Imagine you’re 21 years old and you’ve always dreamed of traveling across the country. The idea of hitting the road in an 18-wheeler seems like the perfect fit. You see an online ad for a carrier that offers free driving school. You call the recruiter and before you know it you’re attending an in-house CDL school. All you had to do was sign a contract, a TRAP (**T**raining **R**epayment **A**greement **P**rovision). You didn’t meet the requirement for a government grant for tuition coverage (WIOA) but that’s okay, the company gives you a spot loan. If you quit within the year, you’ll just have to repay the tuition in full; seems fair. Armed with your new CDL and a smile on your face, you hit the road. The pay is low, but that’s only because you’re a new driver and the company has generously paid for your tuition, it will increase after a year. But after a few months you realize you’ve been TRAPped. You work so many hours with hardly any home time, and don’t get paid for any hours worked outside of driving. You quit, owing the carrier thousands. This is the reality for many unsuspecting recruits, the revolving door. 20-30% of a mega-carrier’s roster is composed of students, trainees, and first-year drivers. 

So, is the trucker shortage real? Lewie Pugh, OOIDA’s Executive Vice President doesn't think so. He said *“It’s not a shortage; it’s a turnover crisis,”* and their April 2025 white paper titled “*The Churn - A Brief Look at the Roots of High Driver Turnover in the U.S.”* backs it up. It points out that other segments of the industry don’t have the same problem, specifically LTL (**L**ess than **T**ruck **L**oad) carriers have a churn rate of under 15%. 

So why exactly is the churn rate so high for OTR mega-carriers? The systemic problem is revealed in how a driver is compensated. 

If you have driven behind a semi-truck, I'm sure you have seen the recruiting ads, usually boasting CPM (**c**ents-**p**er-**m**ile). Companies use this to lure in new drivers, the higher the CPM, the higher your pay, at least that’s what is implied. What many new recruits don’t realize is that while the CPM might be attractive, there are a lot of caveats. Most mega-carriers do not pay for detention time. Sitting at the dock waiting to be loaded? Unpaid. Flat tire? Unpaid. Paperwork? Unpaid. Inspection? Unpaid. 

Interstate drivers are exempt from overtime pay. In 1938, the FLSA (**F**air **L**abor **S**tandards **A**ct) was passed to protect workers’ rights. A standard worker has the right to overtime after 40 hours of work. However, there is a carve-out in the law called the MCA (**M**otor **C**arrier **A**ct) which strips interstate drivers of this right. Since the DOT has the ability to put “safety limits” on the amount of hours a commercial driver can work, those drivers no longer need to be protected by the FLSA. Good luck trying to make sense of that logic. Why would an interstate driver, who can typically work up to 70 hours in 8 days, be exempt from overtime? 

The driver is the sacrifice to keep freight costs low. The “churn and burn” model, which has been adopted by practically all OTR mega-carriers, does in fact, keep shipping rates low. New recruits are used up and spit out in order to keep overall expenses low for their carrier, allowing the carrier to be competitive in the market. What better way to keep the revolving door spinning than to flood the market with naive 18-20-year-old recruits by passing the DRIVE-SAFE Act. 

The revolving door is a product of the legislation. Mega-carriers have all adopted the revolving door model because if they didn’t, they would fail. The carriers who attempt to treat drivers with dignity and respect by paying them for detention time, are quickly undercut and run out of business. We don’t need the DRIVE-SAFE Act. What we actually need is for Congress to repeal the MCA exemption and force carriers to pay for detention time, destroying the “churn and burn” business model.